NCAAB best bets: These 5 picks will make your Friday evening

MAC: Bowling Green vs. Kent State

Friday, March 15, 5 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Kent State -2 (Bet365)

By Matt Cox

The Golden Flashes sorely disappointed its betting backers for most of the season.

The highly anticipated encore campaign in the wake of last season’s NCAA Tournament campaign was derailed early for a confluence of factors. The cumulative injury effect played its part, but the revamped Flashes just never found their mojo.

Now, the tides have turned.

Despite missing presumed best player Chris Payton and starting guard Reggie Bass, Kent State dominated top-seeded Toledo with a stellar performance and methodical half-court offense. That recipe is exactly what it’ll need against Bowling Green’s burly frontline.

The Flashes are now 3-1 against the number this season on neutral sites and 6-1 in the MAC Tournament since 2022.
In short, Rob Senderoff’s style delivers on this format consistently, and this is a cheap price against a BGSU team that, debatably, overachieved in the regular season.

Lay the short number with a proven tournament coach with an edge on the glass.

Pick: Kent State -2 (Play to -3)

MEAC: Howard vs. Norfolk State

Friday, March 15, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Norfolk State -2.5 (Bet365)

By Patrick Strollo

In the previous two meetings this season, Norfolk State has secured victories over Howard, and I think the setup today will lend itself to the same result yet again.

The first angle I like for this game is simply the timing of it. Norfolk State played on Wednesday evening and cruised to an easy victory over No. 8 seed Coppin State.

Howard, meanwhile, will have a quick turnaround after playing last night and getting past No. 5 seed Morgan State.

I like the extra day of rest that the Spartans are getting here, not only so they can rest their legs but also so they can scout Howard before they lock horns with the Bison for the third and final time this season.

Also, I think it should be noted that this is effectively a home game for Norfolk State. While it’s not playing on its home court, it isn’t traveling and should have the hometown advantage.

Now in terms of the actual matchup, Norfolk State is the more efficient team with an efficiency margin 4.11 points higher than that of Howard.

What really sticks out to me, though, is the turnover defense of Norfolk State, which ranks ninth in the nation and first in the MEAC. Howard is one of the most turnover-prone teams in the nation, and I expect this to have a material impact on the outcome of this game.

I recommend laying the chalk in favor of the Spartans as they play what’s essentially a home game. I’d play this at 4.0 or better.

Pick: Norfolk State -2.5 (Play to -4)

MAAC: St. Peter's vs. Quinnipiac

Friday, March 15, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPNNews
Quinnipiac -1.5 (FanDuel)

By Ky McKeon

Sometimes a team has another team’s number. No matter how many times the game is played — whether the reason is matchup-based or otherwise — that team will almost always come out on top.

That might be the case tonight between Quinnipiac and Saint Peter’s, as the Bobcats have beaten the Peacocks soundly by double digits in both matchups this season.

Quinnipiac has won the pace battle in both previous contests. The Bobcats play an uptempo, transition-based offense that’s in stark contrast to the Peacocks’ gritty, grimy half-court style. Each game has gone over 70 possessions, making them just the second and third Saint Peter’s games all season to hit that mark in regulation.

Winning the pace battle and manufacturing more possessions means Quinnipiac’s superior talent gets a higher chance to win out over the course of a contest.

SPU has been a very good transition and ball-screen defensive team this season, but it hasn’t mattered against Quinnipiac.

While the Bobcats didn’t score efficiently on the run in their last matchup with the Peacocks, they still created 20 open-floor opportunities, and they torched SPU in ball screens, pouring in 1.25 points per possession, per Synergy.

If QU can make this an uptempo game once again, it should emerge victorious and coast into the MAAC title game.
The Peacocks will do everything in their power to make this game an all-out war. They will scrap, claw and do whatever it is Peacocks do to prevent QU from being comfortable.

Quinnipiac’s guard play has been excellent all season, and experience should prevail against any tactics to draw them into the mud.

Having good size up front will also help fend off the offensive glass onslaught the Peacocks will no doubt unleash.

Pick: Quinnipiac -1.5 (Play to -2)

ACC: Pitt vs. North Carolina

Friday, March 15, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Pitt +7.5 (Caesars)

By Mike McNamara

North Carolina was dominant yesterday against Florida State, and it was already difficult to fade the best team in the ACC playing for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Pittsburgh has plenty on the line for itself, however, and I think this is a spot to fade those Tar Heels.

The Panthers can pretty much punch their ticket to the Big Dance with an upset over the Heels, and I believe they have the offensive firepower to hang around in this one.

To score enough on a strong UNC defense, a team needs players who can attack the rim off the bounce and also make shots from distance. Jeff Capel’s team has that with Blake Hinson, Carlton Carrington and Ishmael Leggett.

Leggett was fantastic yesterday against Wake Forest, going for 30 points on 11-of-18 shooting while also grabbing eight rebounds.

Pitt has also cranked up its defensive intensity in recent weeks and has the athletes to at least make things difficult for guys like RJ Davis.

The Panthers will need to catch a few breaks to pull off the outright upset, but they have the pieces to make this a 40-minute battle.

I’m backing the 4-seed with the points and would play it down to +6.

Pick: Pitt +7.5 (Play to +6)

Big East: Providence vs. Marquette

Friday, March 15, 8 p.m. ET, FS1
Providence +4.5 (Caesars)

By Shane McNichol

Unless word breaks that Tyler Kolek will be suiting up for the Golden Eagles after missing four games, we need to treat this Marquette team very differently in his absence. The sample size is now large enough to analyze how stark the difference in Marquette’s quality of play has been.

From the start of the season to Kolek’s injury, Bart Torvik’s T-Rank metric had Marquette as the eighth-best team in college hoops, including top-20 rankings on both ends of the floor.

In the four games since Kolek went down, those rankings have plummeted with the Golden Eagles playing the 41st-best ball since Leap Day, ranking 30th on offense and 105th defensively.

Even if Kolek pulls a Willis Reed at the Garden, this is a nice number for a hot Providence team.

Devin Carter, recently crowned Big East Player of the Year, will have his hands full against defensive stalwart Stevie Mitchell, yet I’m more focused on Marquette’s inability to generate consistent offense.

When these teams met at Providence early in the season, the Golden Eagles tallied the same number of turnovers and 2-point baskets in the game.

An energized Providence team, with bubble-related motivation to win, is the pick here.

Pick: Providence +4.5